In September 2026, the MLS reporting area that covers much of the Catalina Foothills posted a median sale price $48,000 lower than a year earlier. Over the same month, the price buyers paid per square foot went up. Both numbers came from the same 67 closings. So the median didn't record homes losing value. It recorded which homes changed hands, and in September the large ones mostly didn't. That gap between the two numbers tells you where a buyer has room to negotiate in the Foothills this winter and where they don't.
One region, two prices pointing in opposite directions
The MLS of Southern Arizona's September 2026 report, with data pulled October 5, splits the Tucson market into regions. Its "North" region recorded 67 sales in September, down 30.9% from September 2025. The median sale price fell $48,000 to $551,000. Price per square foot rose $3 to $291. Median days on market went up five days to 40, and homes closed an average of 2.6% below asking.
Dollar volume tells the rest. North's total sales volume was $48.92 million, down 26.7%, a smaller drop than the 30.9% fall in the number of sales. When volume falls more slowly than the sale count, the average closing price has gone up. In September 2026 the North median fell, the average rose, and price per foot edged higher. That combination points to a shift in the mix of homes closing.
The month before looked quite different. In August 2026, North had 86 sales, up 6.2% year over year, a $640,000 median that was $70,000 higher, $297 per square foot, and a median of 25 days on market. The median fell about $89,000 from August to September, while price per foot slipped only $6. A swing that size in a region this small comes from a handful of expensive closings showing up or not showing up.
Where the missing sales went
The price-band tables in the same reports show which homes stopped closing. These figures cover the whole Tucson Association of Realtors reporting area, not just the Foothills. Still, the Foothills holds much of the metro's highest-priced housing stock, and this band is where most of it sits.
| Tucson-area homes $1.4M and up | July 2026 | August 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Months of supply | 7.36 | 9.65 | 16.54 |
| Active listings | 184 | 193 | 215 |
| Closed sales, sold-price table | 25 | 17 | 12 |
| Median days on market | 16 | 18 | 84 |
| Average closed below asking | 4.30% | 3.82% | 6.34% |
The trend has run in one direction for three months. Supply more than doubled over the quarter, listings piled up, and closings fell by more than half. The September jump in days on market is the sharpest single move, from 18 days to 84. The report's inventory table counts 13 September sales in this band against 12 in the sold-price table, a small mismatch that doesn't change the picture.
The breakdown by home size points the same way. Across the reporting area, homes of 5,000 square feet or more recorded just two sales in September 2026, down 60% from a year earlier. Take a few of those closings out of a 67-sale region and the median drops, even while each home that does sell holds its price per foot.
The band just below barely noticed
If the whole upper end were softening, the $1.2 million to $1.39 million tier would show it too. It doesn't. In September 2026, homes asking in that range had 3.82 months of supply, with 65 active listings against 17 sales. On the sold side, that band recorded 14 closings, up 55.6% year over year, a median of 25 days on market, and an average close 2.68% below asking.
Put that next to the $1.4 million-plus row. The two bands are a few hundred thousand dollars apart. One sold in under a month at a small discount. The other took close to three months at more than twice the discount. The bands on either side are uneven too. The $800,000 to $999,999 tier had 8.28 months of supply, and $1 million to $1.19 million had 10.75. So the Foothills luxury market isn't one market moving together. Each band has its own pace, and the clearest break in September came at about $1.4 million.
Why the top keeps filling
New supply is still coming in at the high end. In mid-October, the Arizona Daily Star reported nearly $20 million in new listings bordering Sabino Canyon. One is the Querencia Estate at 6452 N. Rattlesnake Canyon Road, a 73-acre property designed by Tucson architect Ron Robinette and listed for $10 million. The other is the Desert Retreat at 3978 N. Canyon Ranch Drive, listed for $9.8 million, which is a listing our own team represents. The same article points out that luxury sales had broken records over the previous five years, including an $8.6 million sale northeast of Campbell Avenue and East Skyline Drive earlier in 2026. Both of those are true together. Price records and a thin sale count fit each other in a market where only a few buyers are active at any one time.
New construction is also adding a different kind of luxury home. KOLD reported in July 2026 on Quintana, a development by Michael Franks of La Quinta Building Company that the station described as sitting on the last available parcel in the Catalina Foothills. It has 12 single-level homesites. Floor plans run 2,500 to 4,200 square feet, finished homes range from $2.5 million to nearly $4 million, and three lots had sold when the story aired. These homes are well above $1.4 million but small for that price, so they sell at a high price per foot. As more of them close, the median and price per foot can keep moving in different directions.
In the same KOLD story, Long Realty CEO Kevin Kaplan described the July picture this way:
"There's not a lot of lots and availability to build in town, or even in the foothills. Most of what's for sale is an existing home, some of it is older that may need to be brought current."
At that point he described Tucson's $1 million-plus closed sales as down more than 5% from the same period of 2025, with luxury listings nearly 15% below June 2025. The fall reports suggest the listing shortage has since reversed at the very top. Active listings at $1.4 million and up grew from 184 in July to 215 in September. His point about the kind of inventory still matters. When many of the homes for sale above $1.4 million are older and need updating, buyers have a reason to wait, and that wait shows up as days on market.
Reading a Foothills listing with this in mind
For someone comparing the Foothills with Oro Valley, Dove Mountain or Ventana Canyon, these figures change a few things about how to judge a single home:
- Compare by price per foot, not by the median. At $291 per square foot in September 2026, North held its value better than the $551,000 median suggests. Recent comparable sales of similar size are a better guide than the headline median.
- Find out which band the home is in. Above roughly $1.4 million, the September 2026 data showed 84-day median marketing times and an average 6.34% discount from asking. In the $1.2 million to $1.39 million band, homes sold in 25 days at about 2.7% below asking. An offer strategy that fits one band can backfire in the other.
- Check the listing's own days on market against its band. At the top end, a home listed in July has now been through a full slow quarter. A home that just came on the market in October hasn't.
- Ask whether the home is new or needs work. Quintana-style new construction and an older estate that needs updating can carry the same price and draw very different numbers of buyers.
The region labels need care. MLS of Southern Arizona's official area map shows North and Northeast as separate areas. Local market reports generally describe the Foothills as spanning both. Northeast had a different September. It recorded 52 sales, up 13%, and a $535,000 median that was $166,000 higher than a year earlier, though that region also includes areas outside the Foothills. Depending on where a specific address falls, the relevant figures can look quite different.
A Few Questions We Hear Often
Is the MLS "North" region the same thing as the Catalina Foothills? Not exactly. ZIP code 85718 is generally treated as North. The wider Foothills, including areas toward Sabino Canyon, can fall in Northeast. North is a close proxy for much of the Foothills, but it isn't the same boundary.
When will October's numbers be available? The September report was dated October 5, 2026, so a report covering October would likely come out in early November, after this post is published. With top-end months of supply at 16.54, one strong month of closings would need a lot of sales to bring that number down quickly.
Does a falling median mean Foothills homes are a bargain right now? Only in some price bands. Price per foot rose in North in September 2026, and the $1.2 million to $1.39 million band stayed competitive. The clearest room to negotiate showed up above roughly $1.4 million.
If you're weighing a home on either side of that $1.4 million line, Tierney & Lococo can pull the recent comparable sales and days-on-market history for the specific streets you're considering. We'll help you build an offer around the band the home is actually in. When you're ready, Work With Us.